A Preliminary Study of Hudu’s Score as a Prognostic Scoring System of Predicting the Risk of Liver Cirrhosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Infection

Abstract

Hepatitis B infection long term prognosis is good in the absence of liver cirrhosis. However, the risk of liver cirrhosis developing in chronic Hepatitis B surface antigen positive varies from 1-5/100 patients per year. This study aimed at developing a novel prognostic scoring system to predict liver cirrhosis in chronic Hepatitis B patients. A total of 82 chronic Hepatitis B patients were recruited retrospectively in a cohort study and their liver Biochemistry, Hepatitis B viral DNA level, viral serology, quantitative Hepatitis B e Antigen (qHBeAg) and development of liver cirrhosis were assessed. The data were included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis based on which this prognostic scoring system was established. A simple scoring system composed of virological and biochemical laboratory parameter was developed to predict liver cirrhosis in chronic Hepatitis B patients. This prognostic score is accurate and reproducible. The prognostic score ranges between 5 and 15. Patients prognostic score of 5 indicates low risk, 10 high risk and 15 very high risk of developing cirrhosis. In conclusion, this study has showed a promising scoring system that can be use in predicting the risk of developing liver cirrhosis in chronic Hepatitis B patients.